On May 17, the New York Times reported that the coronavirus crisis was so severe in India, with about 23 million infections confirmed, that the country was accounting for more than half of the world’s daily COVID-19 cases. The same day, The Gateway Pundit posted a story suggesting that two drugs — both of which have drawn warnings from U.S. and global public health officials not to be used for COVID-19 — were having dramatic effects in India. The headline, widely shared on Facebook, read: “Elites Worried: COVID Cases in India Plummet After Government Promotes Ivermectin and Hydroxychloroquine Use.” Daily COVID-19 cases in India decreased in the days before May 17 — but only after a nearly vertical rise that started in April and peaked May 8. The Indian government has recommended limited use of the two drugs for COVID-19, but there is no evidence that their use led to the drop in cases. Neither drug is approved in the U.S. for COVID-19. And both the U.S. Food and Drug Administration and the World Health Organization recommend against using them to prevent or treat COVID-19 infection. The Gateway Pundit article links to another article that links to revised guidelines issued April 28 by India’s Ministry of Health & Family Welfare. The guidelines, for “home isolation of mild/asymptomatic COVID-19 cases,” recommends considering ivermectin as treatment for those patients, and says people in close contact with those patients should take hydroxychloroquine as a prevention “as per protocol and as prescribed by the treating medical officer.” Confirmed new COVID-19 cases in India declined in the days before the article was posted, based on a seven-day rolling average — but only after reaching a peak following a sharp increase that started in April. Many experts caution that the Indian government’s official tallies of confirmed cases likely vastly underestimate the actual infection figures because testing remains limited and the volume of cases has crippled the health care system in some areas. So the actual extent of the decline is not clear. Hydroxychloroquine and ivermectin are being widely used in India for COVID-19, according to news reports. But there is no evidence they led to the recent decline in confirmed cases, given the lack of clear scientific evidence that they are effective at all in prevention or treatment. The government’s new guidelines don’t give a rationale for the recommendations. They were issued several days after a research paper was published that said “results from numerous controlled prophylaxis trials,” including some done in India, “report significantly reduced risks of contracting COVID-19 with the regular use of ivermectin.” Doctors in India admitted to have prescribed the drug under compulsion, peer pressure or on patient’s demand, according to one news report . The health minister in Goa was quoted as saying ivermectin does not prevent a COVID-19 infection, but helps in reducing the severity of the disease. Hydroxychloroquine has been in use much longer. In June 2020, a task force of India’s health ministry recommended that frontline health care workers take it to prevent COVID-19 infection. According to the journal Nature, the task force cited three new studies conducted by government agencies, only one of which had been published, that the task force said showed it can prevent infection.
The Gateway Pundit claimed: “COVID cases in India plummet after government promotes ivermectin and hydroxychloroquine use.”
COVID-19 cases in India dropped in mid-May only after a nearly vertical spike in cases over the previous several weeks. The Indian government has given limited recommendations for using the two drugs in connection with mild COVID-19 cases.