Category: Breaking News

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US economic growth slowing… It’s the Delta

The highly transmissible Delta variant of COVID-19 now makes up an overwhelming majority of the new cases in the U.S., bringing with it a rise in cases and hospitalizations. Widespread vaccine distribution and distancing measures have helped limit the variant’s impact, but we could still see some drag on economic growth as some restrictions are reintroduced and consumers potentially become more cautious. While we may see an increase in market volatility due to the Delta variant, we believe the S&P 500 is still likely to see more gains through the end of the year. Despite the increased transmissibility of Delta and the increased health threat for those who aren’t vaccinated, our understanding of the measures needed to contain COVID-19 is in an entirely different place than it was in 2020. Above all else, we have not just one but several vaccines, which drastically reduces the risk from the variant, although it can’t completely eliminate it. We understand the effectiveness of masks in limiting transmission. Treatments have improved. We also know that the virus is not easily transmitted by touching surfaces—especially with simple good practices around handwashing—limiting the need for certain restrictions. Because of that, deaths from COVID remain near the lowest level of the pandemic despite the pick-up in cases . Much of that is due to the vaccines’ ability to limit serious cases, though health risks remain high for those who aren’t vaccinated. We are also seeing some strain on healthcare systems in regions with low vaccination rates.

Our view has consistently been that governments should, and generally will, impose restrictions only to the degree necessary to protect the most vulnerable and keep our healthcare system from getting overwhelmed. There’s not a clean, scientific answer to exactly what that point is, but there is a solid set of guidelines. If individuals, businesses, and officials use those guidelines as appropriate for their communities, there will still likely be some added drag on economic growth—but we think it will be manageable, with the drag still outweighed by the on-going rebound.We do think third-quarter GDP forecasts could fall a few percentage points, the lost growth being pushed back into late 2021 and early 2022. But even if the impact was so strong that we saw modest economic contraction, which we view as unlikely, we would expect the economy to bounce back quickly. Any drag on economic growth would likely come from a few key sources: Changes in individual behavior due to safety concerns will probably have a larger impact than government intervention. This will likely be especially true for those with young children who are not eligible for vaccinations and those who choose not to get vaccinated. Behavioral changes may slow the recovery in the job market in particular if the changing environment places additional childcare demands on parents or raises workplace safety concerns. While the impact from Delta could slow demand growth, it may have a bigger impact on the supply side. Some countries where vaccine availability has been low have already imposed added restrictions, which could limit factory activity, exacerbate shortages, and create added price pressures. The economy has been slowly starting to work its way through supply/demand imbalances, but this may negate some of the progress, putting a temporary cap on growth. While some people may still choose to remain unvaccinated, it’s hard to ignore the extreme risk disparities between those who are vaccinated and those who aren’t as Delta has spread. Delta’s greater transmissibility does mean “herd immunity” will be harder to achieve, but there does seem to be progress. Europe has been battling Delta longer than the U.S. it’s clear that the Delta variant could create significant added economic strain if left unchecked, Equity markets almost universally like stimulus even if there might be potential long-term negative consequences. Delta has already pushed back expectations of the first Federal Reserve rate hike. Market-based expectations had been pulled forward to 2022 as U.S. growth surprised to the upside, but have now been pushed back again to 2023. The Biden administration’s stimulus plans may also receive greater support if the economy stumbles due to Delta, and we could even see some added COVID-oriented measures. Even if the stimulus comes with a long-term cost, it is likely to be viewed as market positive in the near term due to the added safety net it provides. Even with heightened restrictions in place, individuals and businesses will be reluctant to completely lose reopening momentum. Of course, it’s not completely in their control. There is rising concern over the Delta variant, and people will be more cautious on average. Global vaccine distribution has a long way to go. Meanwhile, vaccine availability is high in the U.S. there are still increased risks to growth and we may see market volatility.

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COVID jab protection wanes within six months – UK researchers

COVID-19 protection from two doses of the Pfizer or AstraZeneca vaccines begins to wane within six months, new research suggests.

In a reasonable “worst-case scenario”, protection could fall to below 50% for the elderly and healthcare workers by winter, analysis from the Zoe COVID study found.

The Pfizer-BioNTech jab was 88% effective at preventing coronavirus infection a month after the second dose.

But the protection decreased to 74% after five to six months – suggesting protection fell 14 percentage points in four months.

Meanwhile, protection from the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine fell to 77% just one month after the second dose. It decreased to 67% after four to five months – suggesting protection fell by 10 percentage points over three months. The vast study involved more than 1.2 million test results and participants, though the vaccines were not trialled against the now dominant Delta variant of the virus. Pfizer’s mid-term efficacy trial observed an initial 96.2% risk reduction in infection up to two months after the second dose. There was an 83.7% reduction around four months after the second dose – a 12.5 percentage point increase in risk of infection. COVID vaccines were rolled out across the UK among the older and the most vulnerable in society along with health workers first, before being given to younger age groups. So the majority of people who had their second dose five to six months ago will be older or considered vulnerable due to other health reasons – suggesting they are now likely to be at increased risk of COVID-19 compared to those vaccinated more recently.

Professor Tim Spector, lead scientist on the Zoe COVID Study app, said: “In my opinion, a reasonable worst-case scenario could see protection below 50% for the elderly and healthcare workers by winter.

“If high levels of infection in the UK, driven by loosened social restrictions and a highly transmissible variant, this scenario could mean increased hospitalisations and deaths”. He said that we “urgently need to make plans for vaccine boosters” as well as decide if a strategy to vaccinate children is sensible if the aim is to reduce deaths and hospital admissions. Prof Spector continued: “Waning protection is to be expected and is not a reason to not get vaccinated. “Vaccines still provide high levels of protection for the majority of the population, especially against the Delta variant, so we still need as many people as possible to get fully vaccinated.” The Zoe COVID Study launched an app feature last December to enable logging of coronavirus vaccines and monitor real-world side-effects and effectiveness in its cohort of over a million users. It used data from vaccines which were recorded from 8 December 2020 to 3 July 2021, and from infections that occurred between 26 May this year when the Delta variant became dominant, and 31 July. The study’s results were slightly adjusted to give an average risk of infection reduction across the population. Researchers claim that while protection appears to decrease steadily, the individual risk may vary due to individual variation in antibody duration.

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US epidemiologist explains why vaccines alone won’t stop Delta Coronavirus and other mutations

Last week booster shots were approved—and are now available—to people with compromised immune systems, thanks to action taken by the Food and Drug Administration and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention as evidence mounts that the efficacy of COVID-19 vaccines wane over time. This week, plans are in the works to offer booster shots come October to other higher-risk populations in the United States, including infection preventionists and other health care professionals, residents in nursing homes, and Americans aged 60 or older. In other words, the booster shots will be offered in more or less the same order in which the original vaccines were distributed. But as Sakia V Popescu, PhD, MPH, MA, CIC, a member of Infection Control Today®’s (ICT®’s) Editorial Advisory Board (EAB) wrote in the December 2020 issue of ICT®, effective infection prevention and control should follow the Swiss cheese model championed by virologist Ian Mackay, PhD. Popescu wrote: “In one succinct image, this captures what we do in infection prevention—stress the additive layers that are needed to reduce the spread of infection. From masking to government messaging and vaccines, these layers all work cohesively to reduce the risk of not only COVID-19 infection, but also transmission. Really, this is a concept we have been reinforcing and growing in the field of infection prevention—a wholistic approach to disease prevention.”

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Talk about booster shots over the weekend grabbed headlines. Francis Collins, MD, PhD, the director of the National Institutes of Health, said of the delta virus that “this is going very steeply upward with no signs of having peaked out,” according to the Associated Press (AP). The US saw an average of 129,000 new infections a day over the last seven days, according to the Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center. That’s a 700% increase from the beginning of July and the number could rise to 200,000, which has not been seen since the January/February surge. Thanks to the vaccines, we will not see the horrendous death rates of those surges.

But as ICT® EAB member Kevin Kavanagh, MD, has argued for over year, mortality isn’t the only metric that needs to be taken into account. For instance, medical experts still don’t know exactly what the long-term effects of COVID-19 are. In a recent interview with ICT®, Kavanagh pointed out that “COVID-19 is not just respiratory, it affects every organ of the body. This is a serious type of infection. And we need to be focusing on trying to keep this virus from spreading, plus protecting our young.”

Anthony Fauci, MD, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases and President Biden’s chief medical advisor, said that “if it turns out as the data come in, we see we do need to give an additional dose to people in nursing homes, actually, or people who are elderly, we will be absolutely prepared to do that very quickly. But that won’t be enough, Kavanagh argues in an article scheduled to be printed in an upcoming issue of ICT®. “SARS-CoV-2 has continued to evolve,” Kavanagh writes. “It has now become evident that with each emerging variant, the virus has appeared to progressively become more infective. Variants which increase viral load may also increase transmissibility and the opportunity to mutate, along with overwhelming a host’s immune system and becoming more virulent.” And there seems to be wave after wave of variants.

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But as Sakia V Popescu, PhD, MPH, MA, CIC, a member of Infection Control Today®’s (ICT®’s) Editorial Advisory Board (EAB) wrote in the December 2020 issue of ICT®, effective infection prevention and control should follow the Swiss cheese model championed by virologist Ian Mackay, PhD. Popescu wrote: “In one succinct image, this captures what we do in infection prevention—stress the additive layers that are needed to reduce the spread of infection. From masking to government messaging and vaccines, these layers all work cohesively to reduce the risk of not only COVID-19 infection, but also transmission. Really, this is a concept we have been reinforcing and growing in the field of infection prevention—a wholistic approach to disease prevention.” Talk about booster shots over the weekend grabbed headlines. Francis Collins, MD, PhD, the director of the National Institutes of Health, said of the delta virus that “this is going very steeply upward with no signs of having peaked out,” according to the Associated Press (AP). The US saw an average of 129,000 new infections a day over the last seven days, according to the Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center. That’s a 700% increase from the beginning of July and the number could rise to 200,000, which has not been seen since the January/February surge. Thanks to the vaccines, we will not see the horrendous death rates of those surges. But as ICT® EAB member Kevin Kavanagh, MD, has argued for over year, mortality isn’t the only metric that needs to be taken into account. For instance, medical experts still don’t know exactly what the long-term effects of COVID-19 are. In a recent interview with ICT®, Kavanagh pointed out that “COVID-19 is not just respiratory, it affects every organ of the body. This is a serious type of infection. And we need to be focusing on trying to keep this virus from spreading, plus protecting our young.” Anthony Fauci, MD, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases and President Biden’s chief medical advisor, said that “if it turns out as the data come in, we see we do need to give an additional dose to people in nursing homes, actually, or people who are elderly, we will be absolutely prepared to do that very quickly. But that won’t be enough, Kavanagh argues in an article scheduled to be printed in an upcoming issue of ICT®.

“SARS-CoV-2 has continued to evolve,” Kavanagh writes. “It has now become evident that with each emerging variant, the virus has appeared to progressively become more infective. Variants which increase viral load may also increase transmissibility and the opportunity to mutate, along with overwhelming a host’s immune system and becoming more virulent.” And there seems to be wave after wave of variants.

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Source: World Health Organization

Kavanagh adds that “to make matters worse, SARS-CoV-2 is infecting a number of animals, including cats, large cats, dogs and gorillas. Most recently, concern has been raised that it may have found an animal host in white tail deer, with SARS-CoV-2 antibodies identified in 40% of surveyed animals.” Peter Hotez, MD, PhD, professor of the departments of pediatrics, molecular virology & microbiology and health policy scholar at Baylor College of Medicine, tells ICT®’s sister publication Contagion that recent data has indeed suggested that COVID-19 vaccine-induced immunity from infection is “not as high as it was.” It remains unclear whether that is due to waning immunity or decreased vaccine effectiveness versus the delta variant—a matter which is difficult to discern because the delta outbreak is occurring well into the post-vaccination phase for most adults in the US. “Right now, the data are showing that the protective efficacy against hospitalization and deaths are holding, but the question is will that start to slip over time as well, and at what point do we pull the trigger?” Hotez said. “And how generalizable do we make it—do we keep it restricted over a certain age, are there other criteria, or do we just open it up the whole population?”

Kavanagh has always said that COVID-19 vaccines alone are not a panacea in stopping the pandemic. And although booster shots are crucially important, one should also not rely on booster shots alone, either. There must be a multi-pronged approach to COVID-19 if we have any hope of returning to our pre-COVID normal lives, Kavanagh writes in his article. That includes:

  • Upgrade recommendations for mask usage and to use N95 or KN95 masks whenever possible.
  • Everyone who can needs to become vaccinated. Similar to Israel, we should fast track approval for mRNA boosters to those who are at higher risk, including those who are immunosuppressed and over the age of 60 and 5 months out from vaccination.
  • Upgrade building ventilation systems to increase air exchanges and air sanitization.
  • Expand testing capabilities to be able to test frontline workers and school children at least twice a week, and other workers at least once a week.
  • Limiting sizes of gatherings, including podding in schools and plans for permanent hybrid instruction to limit class sizes.
  • Businesses, including restaurants, need to offer online ordering along with curbside pickup and when possible, home delivery.
  • Everyone needs to be vaccinated. Mandatory vaccines should be required in many settings, including health care. Vaccine passports or green cards are being implemented in Israel and France and need to be implemented in the United States.
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Carnival Cruise Passenger Dies of Covid Amid Uptick in Cases

As the highly contagious Delta variant surges across the world, the health and safety protocols established for cruise ships are being put to the test. Over two weeks in late July and early August, 27 coronavirus infections were identified aboard the Carnival Vista cruise ship sailing out of Galveston, Texas.

One of those infected, a passenger, later died.

It was the highest number of cases aboard a ship reported since June, when cruises restarted in the Caribbean and United States, and the first death. The passenger and 26 crew members were immediately isolated after testing positive for the virus. Contact tracing and further testing was conducted, with no new cases reported by Aug. 11, when the ship arrived at the port of Belize City on the northeastern coast of Central America, Carnival said. Though the ship sailed out of Texas, which bans businesses from requiring vaccinations, more than 96 percent of passengers were vaccinated and all but one crew member was fully vaccinated, according to the Belize tourism board. Most infected crew members were either asymptomatic or experienced mild symptoms of the virus, but Marilyn Tackett, a 77-year-old passenger from Oklahoma, was admitted to the hospital in Belize and put on a ventilator after experiencing respiratory complications. Days later, she was evacuated to a hospital in Tulsa where she received treatment, but on Aug. 14 her condition worsened, and she died, according to a statement issued by her family on a crowdfunding page set up to help pay for her care. Ms. Tackett’s family declined to comment on the incident. “We are very sorry to hear about the death of a guest who sailed on Carnival Vista,” the Carnival Cruise Line said in a statement. The cruise line said that it was highly unlikely Ms. Tackett contracted the coronavirus aboard the ship, which left Galveston on July 31, and that she had received expert medical care onboard before being evacuated. The cruise line did not test vaccinated passengers before they embarked for the cruise.

Last week, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention issued a new advisory, warning people with increased risk for severe illness from Covid-19 to avoid travel on cruise ships, irrespective of their vaccination status.

Carnival is not the only cruise line to have seen an uptick in cases. Earlier this month, Royal Caribbean had six guests test positive onboard its Adventure of the Seas ship. The companies have responded to the recent increase in cases by introducing pre-departure testing requirements for all passengers. Carnival also added a mask mandate on Aug. 7 for all vaccinated and unvaccinated guests in indoor areas and banned smoking in the casino. “The protocols are designed to flex up and adapt,” said Chris Chiames, the chief communications officer for Carnival Cruise Line, in a telephone interview. “That’s what they’ve done here in the context of their desire to mitigate and minimize the threat of Covid, which is everywhere, unfortunately, and it’s going to remain everywhere for a long time.”

“We never suggested our ships would be Covid free,” he continued. “But we designed our protocols to meet and exceed the guidelines of the C.D.C. and we will continue to be vigilant while continuing to focus on giving our guests a great vacation.”

Michael Bayley, the chief executive officer of Royal Caribbean, said the cruise line was typically seeing one or two positive cases out of more than 1,000 guests a week per ship. More than 90 percent of passengers are vaccinated, he said, and because of preboarding testing requirements two to 10 guests are prevented from boarding ships each week because they test positive. But, Mr. Bayley said in a candid Facebook post addressing the current coronavirus situation, “Testing captures status at a point of time and if the guest is incubating infection, then the test will miss it.” The vaccinated guests who test positive typically are asymptomatic, he said in the post. Some cruise lines say passengers have canceled amid concerns about the risks of the Delta variant, but many sailings are fully booked through the rest of year because of pent-up demand.

Many cruise enthusiasts with upcoming trips believe that cruise ships are one of the safest ways to travel during the pandemic because of the high percentage of vaccinated passengers and crew, added testing requirements and stringent health and safety measures enforced on board.

“It’s very comforting boarding a cruise ship knowing that most people are vaccinated and everyone is tested,” said Aidan Alexander, 62, an avid cruiser from Florida who has eight sailings booked through 2022. “When you get on a plane or stay in a hotel you don’t know anyone’s vaccination or Covid status and that makes it very difficult to relax and unwind.”

John Ioannidis, an epidemiology professor at Stanford University, disputes that notion. In an airport, on a plane or in a hotel, he said, “you only get exposed for a few hours, whereas on a cruise ship you could get exposed for many days and weeks. It’s a kind of cumulative exposure.”

Ms. Perez said in a telephone interview. “I think it’s getting risker to travel now with the new variants, even on cruises”

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Wall St ends higher, Nasdaq notches record closing high on full vaccine approval

NEW YORK, Aug 23 (Reuters) – Wall Street rallied on Monday, and the Nasdaq reached an all-time closing high as sentiment was boosted by full FDA approval of a COVID-19 vaccine and market participants looked ahead to the Jackson Hole Symposium expected to convene later this week. All three major U.S. stock indexes ended the session sharply higher, with surging crude prices, driven by expected demand growth, putting energy shares out front. “This has been the script all along,” said Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities in New York. “We make new highs, pull back, and then we’re off to the races again.” “That tells me the fundamentals are in place,” Cardillo added. “There’s worries out there, but it’s hard to keep this market down.” The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) granted full approval to the COVID-19 vaccine developed by Pfizer Inc and BioNTech SE in a move that could accelerate inoculations in the United States. “Full approval means that there’s most likely going to be more mandates, more companies will mandate that you have to get the vaccine in order to get back to the office,” Cardillo said. “I don’t think this will get all the doubters vaccinated but this news today will probably drive (the vaccinated rate) closer to 75%.” Pfizer and U.S.-listed shares of BioNTech advanced, as did rival Moderna Inc. Spiking COVID-19 infections caused by the highly contagious Delta variant have fueled concerns over a protracted recovery from the global health crisis. Data released on Monday painted a mixed portrait of an economy inching back to normal in the wake of the most abrupt contraction in history. Sales of pre-owned homes unexpectedly increased in July, according to the National Association of Realtors, while a report from IHS Markit showed business activity accelerating this month. The “Goldilocks” portrait of an economic recovery headed in the right direction, but not robust enough to warrant a change in the Federal Reserve’s dovish monetary policy, helped feed investor risk appetite.

Market participants look to the Jackson Hole Symposium, due to convene in Wyoming later this week. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s comments will be closely parsed for clues regarding the central bank’s policy-tightening timeline.

Unofficially, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 215.63 points, or 0.61%, to 35,335.71, the S&P 500 gained 37.84 points, or 0.85%, to 4,479.51 and the Nasdaq Composite added 227.99 points, or 1.55%, to 14,942.65.

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Pfizer jab gets FDA’s full approval

The Food and Drug Administration on Monday announced that it had approved Pfizer and BioNTech’s Covid-19 vaccine, opening the door to more widespread vaccine mandates as schools and universities begin their academic years. The approval comes eight months after the FDA issued Pfizer its first emergency-use authorization for a Covid-19 vaccine on Dec. 11. Since then, more than 204 million doses of the vaccine have been administered in the U.S. alone. On Monday, the FDA’s acting commissioner, Dr. Janet Woodcock, said the approval should boost public confidence in the Pfizer vaccine.

“As the first FDA-approved Covid-19 vaccine, the public can be very confident that this vaccine meets the high standards for safety, effectiveness, and manufacturing quality the FDA requires of an approved product,” Woodcock said in a statement.

The agency approved the vaccine in people aged 16 and older. Emergency-use authorization remains in place for those aged 12 to 15. A third dose for immunocompromised individuals is also still authorized, but not yet approved. “I am hopeful this approval will help increase confidence in our vaccine, as vaccination remains the best tool we have to help protect lives and achieve herd immunity,” Pfizer’s CEO, Albert Bourla, said in a statement after the approval was announced. Pfizer shares were up 3.9% Monday morning, while BioNTech’s American depositary receipt was up 9.9%. Moderna (MRNA) shares also climbed 5.5%. Emergency-use authorization is short of the full approval that most vaccines and therapeutics must receive before they can be administered to patients. The FDA and Pfizer have been working toward full approval for months. Neither of the other two Covid-19 vaccines to be authorized in the U.S., from Moderna and Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), has received full approval. Approval of the Pfizer vaccine won’t change much for the hundred million people in the U.S. who have already received it. It could, however, ease the way for businesses and institutions seeking to require vaccination as a condition of returning to in-person work or school. Speaking on CNN’s State of the Union on Sunday, Surgeon General Dr. Vivek Murthy said full approval could allow for more vaccine mandates. “For businesses and universities that have been thinking about putting vaccine requirements in place in order to create safer spaces for people to work and learn, I think that this move from the FDA, when it comes, will actually help them to move forward with those kinds of plans,” Murthy said. While some vaccine mandates have already been put in place, others have waited on full FDA approval. The Department of Defense, the world’s largest employer, has said it plans to require Covid-19 vaccines for members of the military once the FDA approval is in place. Though there have been legal challenges to vaccine mandates, they have been met with little success in the courts. The Supreme Court in mid-August declined to intercede in a challenge brought by students at Indiana University. The long-term outlook for the pandemic is making a long-lasting and robust market for Covid-19 vaccine boosters look increasingly likely, a bullish sign for the current leading Covid-19 vaccine makers.

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Booster COVID-19 shots should be delayed -Says WHO director-general US CDC says get the booster shot!

BUDAPEST (Reuters) – WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said on Monday that COVID-19 booster shots should be delayed as priority should be given to raising vaccination rates in countries where only 1% or 2% of the population has been inoculated. If vaccination rates are not raised globally, stronger variants of the coronavirus could develop and vaccines intended as booster shots should be donated to countries where people have not received their first or second doses, he said during a visit to Budapest. “In addition, there is a debate about whether booster shots are effective at all,” Ghebreyesus told a news conference with Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto. Those whose immune system is compromised should get a booster shot, though they represent only small percentage of the population, he added. The WHO said last week current data does not indicate that COVID-19 booster shots are needed and that the most vulnerable people worldwide should be fully vaccinated before high-income countries deploy a top-up. The Unites States announced last week it plans to make COVID-19 vaccine booster shots widely available starting on Sept. 20 as infections rise from the coronavirus Delta variant. Hungary has already started widely distributing booster shots.

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UK orders 35 million more Pfizer/BioNTech COVID vaccines

LONDON (Reuters) – Britain has agreed to buy 35 million more doses of the Pfizer/BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine, to be delivered from the second half of next year, as part of its preparations for booster shots and any new variants that could emerge. “While we continue to build this wall of defence from COVID-19, it’s also vital we do everything we can to protect the country for the future too – whether that’s from the virus as we know it or new variants,” health minister Sajid Javid said.

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Israel finds COVID-19 vaccine booster significantly lowers infection risk

JERUSALEM, Aug 22 (Reuters) – A third dose of Pfizer (PFE.N)‘s COVID-19 vaccine has significantly improved protection from infection and serious illness among people aged 60 and older in Israel compared with those who received two shots, findings published by the Health Ministry showed on Sunday. The data were presented at a meeting of a ministry panel of vaccination experts on Thursday and uploaded to its website on Sunday, though the full details of the study were not released. The findings were on par with separate statistics reported last week by Israel’s Maccabi healthcare provider, one of several organisations administering booster shots to try to curb the Delta coronavirus variant. Breaking down statistics from Israel’s Gertner Institute and KI Institute, ministry officials said that among people aged 60 and over, the protection against infection provided from 10 days after a third dose was four times higher than after two doses.

A third jab for over 60-year-olds offered five to six times greater protection after 10 days with regard to serious illness and hospitalisation.

That age group is particularly vulnerable to COVID-19 and in Israel was the first to be inoculated when the vaccine drive began in late December. In recent weeks, the health ministry has said immunity has diminished over time for seniors and younger people as well. Most vaccinated people who fell severely ill in Israel were over 60 and with underlying health conditions. Israel started administering third jabs to over 60-year-olds on July 30. On Thursday it dropped the age of eligibility for a booster to 40, and included pregnant women, teachers and health care workers below that age. Third doses are given only to those who received their second shot at least five months ago.

The United States has announced plans to offer booster shots to all Americans, citing data showing diminishing protection. Canada, France and Germany have announced booster campaigns.

Fighting an outbreak of the Delta variant since June, Israel presently has one of the world’s highest infection rates per capita. Close to 1.5 million people out of the country’s 9.3 million population have taken a third jab.

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Beating Back Delta Will Take Extra Covid Shot for Privileged Few

The roll out of a third dose of Covid vaccine has sparked debate on ethical and political grounds, since a large swath of the human population is yet to receive any inoculation. But the case for boosters on scientific grounds is building. The reason is delta. The most-infectious coronavirus variant to emerge so far is in a race with the human immune system, and there’s mounting evidence that delta is winning — at least initially. Fully vaccinated individuals infected with the variant have peak virus levels in the upper airways as high as those lacking immunity, a large study from the U.K. showed last week. That suggests people with delta-induced breakthrough infections also may be capable of transmitting the virus, frustrating efforts to curb the Covid pandemic. Waning antibody levels in some highly vaccinated populations such as Israel have prompted calls to offer boosters to blunt fresh waves of hospitalizations. “The science is the boosters work, and they will definitely help,” said Shane Crotty, a virologist and professor at the La Jolla Institute for Immunology’s Center for Infectious Disease and Vaccine Research in California. In fully vaccinated, healthy adults, booster shots from Moderna Inc. as well as Pfizer Inc. and its partner BioNTech SE cause antibodies to rebound to peak levels, if not well beyond, Crotty said in a Zoom interview Friday. Those antibodies are also likely to be more durable and adept at fighting a wider range of SARS-CoV-2 strains, he said. That’s especially helpful in fighting delta. Researchers in China found the strain is detectable in patients four days after picking up the virus — two days earlier than was previously observed — indicating the strain makes individuals infectious sooner. People infected with delta were also found to have significantly higher amounts of virus in their upper airways compared with infections caused by other strains. “It’s inherently tougher to stop with antibodies because there’s more of it and it’s a tougher challenge for the immune system,” Crotty said. Bolstering antibody levels with an extra dose of vaccine may enable the immune system to swiftly block delta on its arrival in the nose and throat, preventing the coronavirus from not only infecting cells and causing illness, but also stopping it from spreading, he said. A slower antibody response, on the other hand, may increase infectiousness and worsen symptoms. “It’s a race between the virus and your immune system,” Crotty said. The faster the virus replicates, the less time antibodies have to block an infection. Still, even when a delayed antibody response does lead to infection, immunity generated by either vaccination or a natural infection is usually enough to prevent it causing severe illness in an otherwise healthy person, he said. Most pediatric vaccine regimens are administered over three shots, Crotty said. “A lot of that is about the mechanics of immune memory generation — that it’s frequently taken three exposures to get that,” he said. Three studies published by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention last week showed that although delta may be hastening a decline in the effectiveness of the Moderna and Pfizer-BioNTech shots at preventing SARS-CoV-2 infections, including among nursing home residents, the vaccines remained a reliable shield against hospitalization over a six-month period. Delta can cause breakthrough infections and illness in people with lower antibody levels, said Andrew Pekosz, a professor of molecular microbiology at the Johns Hopkins University Bloomberg School of Public Health in Baltimore. “The good news is that vaccine efficacy against severe disease is still maintained,” he said. In addition, fully immunized people infected with delta may be infectious for a shorter period compared with individuals lacking immunity, reducing their propensity to transmit the virus, Pekosz said. It’s possible the infectiousness of vaccinated individuals could be further reduced with third shots using a different inoculation, delivery via a nasal spray, or using smaller amounts of the same vaccine, he said. “We are still working out the mechanics of how best to use these vaccines for maximum protection,” said Michael Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota in Minneapolis. “Our challenge is going to be how to continue to use these vaccines to maximize the most important aspect of public health: preventing infections.” Curbing spread is also key to preventing the emergence of variants even more dangerous than delta, he said. That goal must be sought globally with equity and solidarity, Osterholm said. “It’s a worldwide epidemic that will continue until you take care of it around the world,” he said. “From a humanitarian standpoint, this is obviously critical.” In the U.S., unvaccinated people are now swamping medical institutions in large swaths of the country, Johns Hopkins’ Pekosz said. “Vaccination would keep people out of the hospital, and that is the most important thing that vaccinations can do.” La Jolla’s Crotty estimates that more than 90% of SARS-CoV-2 transmission is from unvaccinated people. “In the U.S., we’ve got so many of those,” he said. “If you have two doses of vaccine, it’s way more valuable for those two doses to go to an unvaccinated person than people getting boosters if you want to talk about transmission,” Crotty said. “But if you can’t convince the people to get the damn things and somebody else wants them now, will it actually help the other person? Yeah, it will help them.”